
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
by
dsoul
on January 12, 2006 08:17PM (PST)
Seldom do
book publishers cover notes reflect the reality of the contents. Even
rarer is the case where they understate the charm and impact that a
book can have, but this is the case in this work of Nassim Nicholas
Taleb (Random House, 2005 2nd ed.):
" ... here is the word of mouth sensation that
will change the way you think about business and the world. This book
is about luck: more precisely, aobut how we perceive luck in our
personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the
most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill -- the
markets -- Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent,
iconoclastic, eye-opening and endlessly entertaining multidisciplinary
exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives."
The author maintains that we undrestimate the share of randomness in just about everything and that "...
the Tragic Vision of humankind that believes in the existence of
inherent limitations and flaws in the way we think and act requires an
acknowledgement of this fact as a basis for any individual and
collective action." ... "Needless to say that the ideas of this book
fall squarely into the Tragic category: We are faulty and there is no
need to bother trying to correct our flaws. We are so defective and so
mismatched to our environment that we can just work around these flaws."
Methods to work around these flaws are, of
course, the themes of the Cybernetic and CEP streams in this web
site... You'll find that this book is an excellent starting point to
understand the magnitude of task that faces us... and the ultimate
reminder that in many cases the false belief in determinism (often
brought on by artificial reduction of the dimensionality of things) can
be the beginning of the road to ruin for as Taleb so succinctly states
in the prologue: "As much as you believe in the 'keep-it-simple-stupid' it is the simplification that is dangerous."
My ranking: * * * * *
originally Posted to cep.weblogger.com by David Soul on 10/15/05; 8:56:58 PM
in the Errors section.
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